And now for something completely different.
What’s interesting about this forecast is that the Deagel website doesn’t have a dog in this fight. They are quite literally mercenary. The site analyzes which markets are going to have budgets allocated to buy military aircraft. That’s all they’re really care about.
These predictions are based on a merge of publicly-available reports from institutions such as the CIA, IMF and the UN. They also include a small amount of data coming from a variety of “shadow sources” such as Internet gurus. But all these sources are from the Internet.
Deagel says, “We assume that the official data, especially economic, released by governments is fake, cooked or distorted in some degree. Historically it is well known that the former Soviet Union was making up fake statistics years before its collapse. Western as well as other countries are making up their numbers today to conceal their real state of affairs.”
The list is ever-changing. The forecasts for population growth or decline, military expenditures and Purchasing Power Parity in all of the world’s countries have fluctuated somewhat, since I first ran across the list in mid-2015 but one prediction has remained a constant: China will be the largest economy on Earth in 2025.
Certain things on this list are well-known and expected. We know that China’s population growth is peaking and that it will recede slightly. India’s population growth remains unchained and it will grow by nearly 100,000,000 people in 8 years. Other things are in flux. A year ago, Brazil’s GDP was predicted to take a distant second place to China’s in 2025 but since the coup d’état of Dilma Rousseff and the ensuing nonviolent political and economic chaos, Brazil has slipped behind India and Russia to take the number 4 spot. I suspect that the ramifications of the currency madness in India is not yet fully reflected in Deagel’s current list and that India’s position may soon change.
Yes. The US is not predicted to be among the 5 top GDPs, not even in the top 10. There are some extremely radical and unexpected shifts predicted, particularly within the US, UK and Australia.
Last Monday, I pasted the top 60 nations, sorted by GDP into an Excel spreadhseet and did some calculations in it, to try to make some sense out of this data.
I gave color codes to show radical shifts in population and Purchasing Power Parity (PPP). “PPP” means the estimate of what the exchange rate between two currencies would have to be in order for the exchange to be at par with the purchasing power of the two countries’ currencies. On this list, it’s pegged to the US dollar. Brick Red means devastating changes, peach and yellow, devastating but less extreme. Green indicates improvement.
By far the most radical and catastrophic occurrences are Deagel’s predicted depopulation of the US by 81% or over 260M people and a PPP decrease also of 81%, with the US economy plummeting from today’s #1 spot to #11. This is up from #13, two years ago, but today, they’re predicting that the US population will decrease to 61M, down from 68M 2 years ago (!)
Mexico’s population will basically stay the same but their PPP will decrease by 31%. Canada, while it’s predicted to have a 54% loss of PPP, it will lose 27% of its current population, according to Deagel’s predictions. These figures are harrowing but not as bad as the catastrophic changes which are predicted to be seen in the rest of the world’s most developed economies.
Here’s a short list of the most negative data:
US: population loss of 81% PPP loss of 81%
UK: population loss of 70% PPP loss of 82%
Spain: population loss of 51% PPP loss of 73%
Germany: population loss of 50% PPP loss of 64%
Australia: population loss of 49% PPP loss of 80%
Switzerland: population loss of 46% PPP loss of 60%
France: population loss of 31% PPP loss of 55%
Singapore: population loss of 25% PPP loss of 62%
Saudi Arabia: population loss of 12% PPP loss of 65%
Only three countries within the group of the top 60 GDP will experience significant improvement, while catastrophe is reigning in the countries listed above:
The countries with the top 10 highest PPP are predicted to be, in this order: Brunei, Qatar, Netherlands, Russia, Singapore, Norway, Finland, Chile, Taiwan and Malaysia, with only Russia’s increasing, the rest all decreasing and in the case of Singapore, decreasing significantly.
The way the population losses and gains are distributed, it does not appear that these radical depopulations will be the result of nuclear bombs or hot wars. These look like the results of financial collapse and migration, although many people are predicted to die, due to the economic chaos, as well.
Brazil, whose GDP will almost triple, despite its ongoing political saga (which may soon be mirrored by that of the US) will also experience a population increase of 5%, in a country which has been experiencing a population decrease, with a current growth of .86%. In other words, ~10M people are expected to migrate to Brazil within 8 years.
According to these statistics, the two countries with the most rosy outlook are Russia and Chile.